No Blue Wave is Coming: Red Voter Wall

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Primary results have been showing Republican voters have formed a "red wall" in some states.

This article is part three of an ongoing series which analyzes the upcoming midterms. Read the other parts here and here.

There is no Blue Wave coming. In fact, in recent few weeks, primary and special elections have revealed evidence of a “Red Wall” if not an outright Red Wave.

The Red Wall of CA Voters

Let’s begin by examine last week’s primary in CA, which was highly overrated. Democrats have been touting that control of the US House runs through California.

This strategy sounds feckless, arrogant, and very undemocratic (no pun intended).

Regardless, last week Democrats could not even produce a ripple, let alone a wave, in Deep Blue California.

The ten targeted GOP US House seats in CA, Democrats failed to shutout Republicans. (Note: California has an open primary system where the two candidates with the most votes advances to the general election irrespective of party affiliation).

Looking at the hard numbers from each of those districts, Democratic turnout was much lower than expected, with Republican turnout very high. As Dan Palmer from The Hill expressed it:

  • In the 4th district, Republican Tom McClintock won with 52 percent of the vote, and the GOP on the whole earned 59 percent. In the 10th district, Republican Jeff Denham won with 38 percent, and the GOP earned 52 percent. In the 21st district, Republican David Valadao won the race against Democrat T.J. Cox with 64 percent of the vote. In the 22nd district, Republican Devin Nunes won with 58 percent, beating three Democrats and two minor party candidates with a combined 41 percent.
  • In the 25th district, Republican Steve Knight won with 53 percent, beating three Democrats with a combined 47 percent. In the 39th district, Republican Young Kim won with 22 percent beating a field of 16 candidates, and the GOP earned 54 percent. In the 45th district, Republican Mimi Walters won with 53 percent, beating three Democrats and a minor party candidate with a combined 47 percent. In the 48th district, Republican Dana Rohrabacher won with 30 percent, beating a field of 15 candidates including a challenge from a popular former Orange County Republican Party chairman, and the GOP earned 53 percent.
  • In the 49th district, where Issa holds his seat, there was a toss-up, and Diane Harkey won 26 percent. beating a field of 15 candidates, and the GOP earned 48 percent, while four Democrats combined for 50 percent with the highest, Mike Levin, getting 17 percent. In the 50th district, Republican Duncan Hunter won with 49 percent, the GOP earned 64 percent, and the highest performing Democrat got 16 percent.

This suggests a Red Wall has formed in Blue California.

Motivation

Additionally, Republican John Cox came in second for governor, ensuring the GOP has a candidate on the top of the ticket in November. This shall motivate CA Republicans to go the polls, to say nothing about putting a Blue gubernatorial seat in play.

Another thing which will motivate Republican voters is the controversial Cal 3 Proposition which seeks to divide California into three states, potentially giving Democrats four additional US Senate seats.

Meanwhile, on June 12th, Deplorable candidates won big in primaries across the country. However, did anyone notice that Democrat turnout was not discussed by the MSM following Tuesday nights results? The only thing discussed was Corey Stewart’s white nationalist ties and Rep. Mark Sanford’s loss. I wonder why…hmmm?

In fact, the only significant national victory for Dems in all of 2018 has been the PA-18 Special Election where a Democrat — who was prolife, progun, anti-single payer, and on trade, “pro-Trump” — flipped a Red district Blue by a few hundred votes. Thus, a “Trump Democrat” now represents a Pennsylvania house district.

Taken together, you have the makings of a Red Wave.