This article is part two of an ongoing series which analyzes the upcoming midterms.
There will be NO Blue Wave this fall. As I said in a December tweet and in my last post, pundits would start citing agenda polls in order to discourage Deplorables and stall President Trump’s agenda. I was right.
Hmmm, does any of this seem familiar?
The Democrats’ next step would be to distort select election results in order to build a sense of inevitability for a spurious Democrat wave. I was right again.
Short term memory problems
For months, liberal pundits kept citing state and city election results in 2017 where Democrats fared well at the polls as evidence of a “blue wave”. However, pointing to state legislative and city results in special elections during an off-year cycle as indication of national outcome during general election is problematic at best.
Special elections — especially in off-years — always have poor turnout rates which do not mirror midterm or presidential year electorates. Most voters are unaware of special elections, especially state level ones.
It is also important to note that most of these Democratic victories came in late 2017 when President Trump was mired down in the fake ‘Russian scandal’, Repeal & Replace failed, and Republicans were still struggling to pass tax reform.
First Blue ripples
Although, in November, the Democratic Party did earnestly break its long dry spell by scoring statewide wins in deep blue New Jersey and purple Virginia – two states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
However, neither of these events were particularly surprising — except perhaps to those who were unfamiliar with the nature of the races and the candidates running.
In New Jersey, former DNC finance chair and Howard Dean associate, Amb. Phil Murphy (D) easily defeated pro-Choice Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 56-42%. Ms. Guadagno was haunted by the unpopularity of the Christie administration.
In New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie — once a darling of the Establishment GOP when he endorsed Mitt Romney in the 2012 Republican Primary — was successfully reelected in 2013. Nevertheless, his second term as governor was rocked by multiple political scandals.
It was against this backdrop that Mr. Murphy — an ex-Goldman Sachs executive flush with globalist backers — easily prevailed. Similarly, in Virginia, former “Never Trump” alumni Ed Gillespie lost handily to Ralph Northam 45-54%.
“Never Trump” at your own risk
Mr. Gillespie had distanced himself from President Trump and ran as a country club Republican in an era of anti-Establishment fervor. As Breitbart’s Sean Moron stated, Gillespie “kept his distance” from alt-Right news sources. This hampered him at the polls by limiting his reach to the populist electorate that has reinvented the GOP in 2016.
Predictably — and desperate for any type of good news during the Trump era — Democrats quickly spun the results as a major victory. CNN’s Daniella Diaz highlighted former VP Joseph Biden’s tweet which declared the results as a “resounding defeat….for President Trump.” Where “voters around the country rejected the ugly politics we have seen this past year…” However, Dem states such as New Jersey and Virginia staying blue are hardly indicative of a rejection from “voters around the country”.
Rather than a referendum on Mr. Trump, the President stated the obvious, that “Ed Gillespie…did not embrace” his America First principles which no doubt soured on Mr. Trump’s Virginia supporters. This should be the warning to all RINOs: if you’re not with us, then you’re against us.
Forty-five went on to note “Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats”. These facts, coupled with the continually poor showings in Red States by Democrats and tenacity of President Trump’s supporters, should give Democrats great cause for concern.